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EJERCICIO DE SERIES DE TIEMPO
Considere los siguientes datos de la Demanda de un producto entre los años 1992 y 1994
Pronostique la Demanda para el año 1995
DESARROLLO
1° Graficar
Como es posible apreciar, la Serie de datos presentada muestra una clara tendencia positiva. Por lo tanto, debemos trabajar con MICO para efectuar el pronóstico.
MÉTODO ADITIVO
Pronóstico = Tendencia + Ajuste
Tendencia =
Ajuste:
Ajuste
Otoño: (-13.91 - 9.85 - 40.8) / 3 = -21.52
Invierno: (9.6 - 1.34 + 12.72) / 3 = 20.98
Primavera: (- 6.88 - 7.83 - 23.77) / 3 = -12.83
Verano: (36.63 + 15.69 + 29.74) / 3 = 27.35
Pronóstico:
Otoño: 541.74 - 21.52 = 520.22
Invierno: 553.23 + 20.98 = 574.21
Primavera: 564.71 - 12.83 = 551.88
Verano: 576.20 + 27.35 = 603.55
MÉTODO MULTIPLICATIVO
Pronóstico = Tendencia * Indice de Temporada
Tendencia =
Indice de Temporada:
Indice de Temporada
Otoño: (0.97 + 0.98 + 0.92) / 3 = 0.96
Invierno: (1.02 + 1.00 + 1.03) / 3 = 1.02
Primavera: (0.98 + 0.98 + 0.95) / 3 = 0.97
Verano: (1.08 + 1.03 + 1.06) / 3 = 1.06
Pronóstico:
Otoño: 541.74 * 0.96 = 520.07
Invierno: 553.23 * 1.02 = 564.29
Primavera: 564.71 * 0.97 = 547.77
Verano: 576.20 * 1.06 = 610.77
UNIVERSIDAD DE SANTIAGO DE SANTIAGO DE CHILE
FACULTAD DE ADMINISTRACION Y ECONOMIA
INGENIERIA COMERCIAL
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Enviado por: Carolina Castro Idioma: castellanoPaís: Chile